Forecasting the Impact of Climate Change for Electric Power Management in the Southwest

Multiple challenges are gathering in the southwestern region of the U.S., resembling the formation of a storm. The explosive growth in population and economy over the past years have only aggravated the existing scarcity of natural resources in the region. Climate change is expected to amplify these issues even further. Electricity providers are particularly challenged in this situation, because demand for energy is known to be connected with many factors, including population, weather, regulations, and water. One way of improving this scenario is to promote more efficient use of inputs. Thus, we develop statistical models for forecasting short-term and medium-term usage of electricity, using data from an electric utility located in southern Arizona. Our results for the short-term show that predictions can be improved significantly when weather variables are included, especially temperature. For the medium-term, we find that climatic forecasts that are publicly available can perform well in a seasonal planning model.

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