The Value of Climate Forecast Information in the Range Cattle Stocking Decision

Since precipitation is a crucial component for forage production in the southeastern rangelands of Arizona, ranching operations m this region are highly vulnerable to fluctuations in climate patterns. If crude ENSO forecasts are the only type of climate information available to a rancher, can this information improve resource management strategies and influence the stocking decision? The stocking decision is modeled for the San Carlos cow-calf ranching operation through a stylized dynamic stochastic framework utilizing El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) forecasts that represent qualitatively different types of climate activity such as El Nino and La Nina events to determine the value of climate forecast information in the range cattle stocking decision. ENSO forecasts can lead to improved ranch profits as well as lower average stocking rates. 

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