SOURCES OF GROWTH IN INTERNATIONAL GRAIN IMPORTS, 1950-1980.

World grain trade grew rapidly during the last three decades in developed countries (DCs) as well as in the developing countries (LDCs). To examine the causes of the rapid increase in grain imports, seventy-eight countries have been chosen from among the DCs and LDCs as net importers of grains in 1980. The results of this study show that, contrary to popular opinion, population growth and the decline of starchy staple production had only a limited effect on grain imports. Improvement in cereal production in most of the country groups had a negative effect on cereal imports, almost balancing the effects of population growth and declining starchy staple production. Income growth is the most significant cause of the rise of cereal importations. In DCs income growth is most important as a cause of increases in indirect demand for grain. In LDCs. income is a dominant factor in increased direct consumption of grain.

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