FACTORS AFFECTING RURAL-URBAN LAND CONVERSION: AN EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS OF THE TUCSON METROPOLITAN AREA, 1975/76-1980

In recent years concern has grown regarding the adequacy of open space, much of which is in agricultural use, in and around urban areas. Development of this land is essentially irreversible, creating public controversy over the long-run effects of rural to urban land conversion and prompting government intervention in the regional land market. Theory indicates that undeveloped land in close proximity to an urbanized area is more likely to be converted to urban use than land further from the rural-urban fringe. Awareness of the impact of locational factors influencing the conversion of land from low to high intensity uses may improve the efficiency of the land use planning process. Variables thought to be influential in the land development process are high intensity physical land use, residential zoning, minority population, housing value, and accessibility to employment opportunities. Data are analyzed using a resource allocation model with the goal of maximization of net benefits to society over a given time horizon. The study examines the Tucson, Arizona, Metropolitan Area (TMA) over the period 1975/76-1980. Results of the empirical study suggest that land use goals will be achieved only if decision-makers account for locational conversion pressures when implementing land use guidance techniques such as zoning or taxation.

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