EQUILIBRIUM EGG SHIPMENTS FOR THE UNITED STATES UNDER PRODUCTION ALTERNATIVES

The intent of this thesis is to utilize the Reactive Programming algorithm to estimate equilibrium trade flows and prices which maximize producer returns under alternative production levels. The validity of the model was first established and compared against the results of alternative elasticities and transportation costs. Production alternatives were next examined, including projected trade flows for 1990.

A comparison of the equilibrium solution to actual flow and price data supported the ability of the model to duplicate reality. Alternative transportation costs and elasticity estimates had minimal effects on the optimum solution.

Northeastern deficit regions were best supplied from Southeastern surpluses in all cases. The most profitable markets for Southern California were the deficit Southwest states. Utah and New Mexico emerged as important egg exporters in the projected 1990 solution. Results indicated an inelastic price-demand response on the national level while regional prices changed proportionately less than regional production changes

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