A CONTAGION THEORY OF URBAN DEVELOPMENT: AN EMPIRICAL TEST OF THE TUCSON METROPOLITAN AREA (1967-1976) (ARIZONA)

Present decisions concerning the development of high-intensity land uses dictate to a great extent the living environment of present and future generations. This is due in part to the irreversibility associated with most urban expansion. Long-range planning goals are needed to assure a safe and healthy environment for society well into the future. To successfully achieve long-range planning goals, it is helpful to understand forces that affect urban growth. Analysis of conversion data for the Tucson Metropolitan Area in the 1967-1976 period indicates that one factor influencing growth rates is the density of existing high-intensity land use. Development of high intensity land uses increases the likelihood of further development until the availability of vacant land becomes a limiting factor. Awareness of the contagious nature of urban growth can affect public programs designed to guide urban growth, such as zoning, transferable development rights, use-value taxation, and development taxes.

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